Mark Carney ’s Liberal Party is set to form a minority government in Canada after a dramatic election that saw a sharp shift in momentum following tensions with the United States. The Liberals, once heading for defeat, rallied to outperform Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, helped by a wave of nationalist sentiment triggered by US President Donald Trump's hostile rhetoric towards Canada.
Also read: How Trump won Canada for Mark Carney
While Carney’s victory offers him the prime ministership, the Liberals have fallen short of a parliamentary majority and may need the support of smaller parties like the Bloc Québécois to govern. For India, however, this leadership change could signal an important opportunity to reset relations after years of strain under Justin Trudeau.
A chance at resetting ties
Diplomatic ties between India and Canada soured significantly during Justin Trudeau’s tenure, particularly following his allegations in September 2023 regarding Indian involvement in the killing of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia. This led to a major diplomatic rift, with expulsions of diplomats and widespread mistrust.
Carney, however, has indicated a willingness to rebuild the relationship. In a recent media interaction in Calgary, he described India as a "key opportunity" for expanding Canada’s trade partnerships. "There needs to be a shared sense of values around that commercial relationship, and if I am Prime Minister, I look forward to the opportunity to build that," Carney said.
What about international students?
One area of particular interest for India will be the future of Indian students in Canada, who form a significant part of the 427,000-strong international student community. Carney’s Liberals have proposed a more measured approach to immigration and international student intake as part of their broader strategy to tackle Canada’s housing and infrastructure crisis.
According to the 2025 Liberal manifesto, immigration numbers including international students and temporary workers will be capped to ensure they represent less than 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2027, down from a previous high of 7.3%. Permanent resident admissions will be stabilised at below 1% annually beyond 2027. While the plan acknowledges the economic and cultural contributions of newcomers, it stresses the need to align immigration with Canada's capacity to provide housing, jobs, and healthcare.
For Indian students, this means that while opportunities will continue, competition could tighten. The manifesto also outlines plans to streamline the recognition of foreign credentials and speed up immigration processing times, potentially benefiting those who do secure entry. However, the overall trend points to a more restrained and carefully managed intake.
Carney during has campaign trail has also voiced support for prioritising the transition of temporary residents to permanent status before significantly increasing overall immigration levels. He has earlied argued that Canada should focus on better integrating the more than four million newcomers who have arrived in recent years before expanding the system further.
This approach aligns with the latest Immigration Levels Plan from IRCC, which includes a new “In-Canada Focus” stream, reserving 82,980 permanent residency spots in 2025 for those already living in Canada as temporary residents. Carney has also called for a reduction in temporary foreign workers (TFWs), noting that while reliance on them rose during the Covid-19 pandemic, the system has since become unmanageable.
Under new IRCC caps, TFW permits will be limited to 82,000 annually from 2025–2027, while International Mobility Program permits will drop sharply.
India-Canada ties under Trudeau
Under Trudeau, India-Canada relations reached their lowest point in recent times. Tensions flared after Trudeau’s public remarks linking India to Nijjar’s death, and the fallout was swift with diplomatic expulsions, visa restrictions, and a chill in bilateral engagement.
The breakdown in trust also had economic implications. Although bilateral services trade touched CAD 13.49 billion in 2023, deeper economic cooperation was hampered by political tensions. The Indian government increasingly viewed Canada as an unreliable partner, while Indo-Canadian ties became entangled in domestic political debates within Canada itself.
Carney’s ascension offers a chance to move beyond this period of suspicion. His focus on trade diversification, strengthening ties with like-minded nations, and rebuilding trust with India suggests that the coming years could see a more pragmatic and mutually beneficial relationship between Ottawa and New Delhi.
Also read: How Trump won Canada for Mark Carney
While Carney’s victory offers him the prime ministership, the Liberals have fallen short of a parliamentary majority and may need the support of smaller parties like the Bloc Québécois to govern. For India, however, this leadership change could signal an important opportunity to reset relations after years of strain under Justin Trudeau.
A chance at resetting ties
Diplomatic ties between India and Canada soured significantly during Justin Trudeau’s tenure, particularly following his allegations in September 2023 regarding Indian involvement in the killing of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia. This led to a major diplomatic rift, with expulsions of diplomats and widespread mistrust.
Carney, however, has indicated a willingness to rebuild the relationship. In a recent media interaction in Calgary, he described India as a "key opportunity" for expanding Canada’s trade partnerships. "There needs to be a shared sense of values around that commercial relationship, and if I am Prime Minister, I look forward to the opportunity to build that," Carney said.
What about international students?
One area of particular interest for India will be the future of Indian students in Canada, who form a significant part of the 427,000-strong international student community. Carney’s Liberals have proposed a more measured approach to immigration and international student intake as part of their broader strategy to tackle Canada’s housing and infrastructure crisis.
According to the 2025 Liberal manifesto, immigration numbers including international students and temporary workers will be capped to ensure they represent less than 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2027, down from a previous high of 7.3%. Permanent resident admissions will be stabilised at below 1% annually beyond 2027. While the plan acknowledges the economic and cultural contributions of newcomers, it stresses the need to align immigration with Canada's capacity to provide housing, jobs, and healthcare.
For Indian students, this means that while opportunities will continue, competition could tighten. The manifesto also outlines plans to streamline the recognition of foreign credentials and speed up immigration processing times, potentially benefiting those who do secure entry. However, the overall trend points to a more restrained and carefully managed intake.
Carney during has campaign trail has also voiced support for prioritising the transition of temporary residents to permanent status before significantly increasing overall immigration levels. He has earlied argued that Canada should focus on better integrating the more than four million newcomers who have arrived in recent years before expanding the system further.
This approach aligns with the latest Immigration Levels Plan from IRCC, which includes a new “In-Canada Focus” stream, reserving 82,980 permanent residency spots in 2025 for those already living in Canada as temporary residents. Carney has also called for a reduction in temporary foreign workers (TFWs), noting that while reliance on them rose during the Covid-19 pandemic, the system has since become unmanageable.
Under new IRCC caps, TFW permits will be limited to 82,000 annually from 2025–2027, while International Mobility Program permits will drop sharply.
India-Canada ties under Trudeau
Under Trudeau, India-Canada relations reached their lowest point in recent times. Tensions flared after Trudeau’s public remarks linking India to Nijjar’s death, and the fallout was swift with diplomatic expulsions, visa restrictions, and a chill in bilateral engagement.
The breakdown in trust also had economic implications. Although bilateral services trade touched CAD 13.49 billion in 2023, deeper economic cooperation was hampered by political tensions. The Indian government increasingly viewed Canada as an unreliable partner, while Indo-Canadian ties became entangled in domestic political debates within Canada itself.
Carney’s ascension offers a chance to move beyond this period of suspicion. His focus on trade diversification, strengthening ties with like-minded nations, and rebuilding trust with India suggests that the coming years could see a more pragmatic and mutually beneficial relationship between Ottawa and New Delhi.
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