This year, the southwest monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 27, 5 days earlier than the normal onset date of June 1, said India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Timely onset and progress of the monsoon is crucial for the kharif season crop production. The onset date has a model error of ± 4 days.
Last year, monsoon had arrived on May 30.
The advance of the southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala and is an important indicator characterizing the transition from the hot and dry season to the rainy season.
As the monsoon progresses northward, relief from scorching summer temperatures is experienced over the areas.
Southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on 1st June with a standard deviation of about 7 days.
IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards.
“An indigenously developed state-of-the-art statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days is used for the purpose,” said IMD in statement.
IMD uses six parameters, which includes minimum temperatures over North-west India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula, mean sea level pressure over sub tropical north westPacific Ocean, outgoing long wave radiation over south China Sea, lower tropospheric zonal wind over Northeast Indian Ocean, and upper tropospheric zonal wind over Indonesia Region.
IMD has claimed that the operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the past 20 years (2005-2024) were proved to be correct except in 2015.
Timely onset and progress of the monsoon is crucial for the kharif season crop production. The onset date has a model error of ± 4 days.
Last year, monsoon had arrived on May 30.
The advance of the southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala and is an important indicator characterizing the transition from the hot and dry season to the rainy season.
As the monsoon progresses northward, relief from scorching summer temperatures is experienced over the areas.
Southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on 1st June with a standard deviation of about 7 days.
IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards.
“An indigenously developed state-of-the-art statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days is used for the purpose,” said IMD in statement.
IMD uses six parameters, which includes minimum temperatures over North-west India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula, mean sea level pressure over sub tropical north westPacific Ocean, outgoing long wave radiation over south China Sea, lower tropospheric zonal wind over Northeast Indian Ocean, and upper tropospheric zonal wind over Indonesia Region.
IMD has claimed that the operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the past 20 years (2005-2024) were proved to be correct except in 2015.
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