If you're clutching that age-old investing playbook urging you to " Sell in May and go away", it might be time to toss it out or at least, rip out the India chapter. Because on Dalal Street, May isn’t the season of exits.
The numbers speak louder than tradition: Nifty has clocked positive returns in six of the past ten years, with an average gain of 1.5% during May. Only four times in the last decade did the benchmark index end the month in the red, and none of those falls qualify as apocalyptic.
"Sell in May and go away doesn’t work anywhere except making headlines," SAMCO Securities’ Apurva Sheth told ETMarkets. “S&P 500 has closed on a positive note in the last 9 out of the 10 years with an average gain of 0.9%. Nifty50 has closed on a positive note in 6 out of 10 years. That’s not all…the historical data of Wall Street also disproves this theory. In the last 40 years, S&P 500 has ended on a positive note on 31 occasions with an average gain of 1.24%.”
The original “Sell in May” mantra hails from London’s old trading rooms, when brokers would literally go on summer holidays and leave their desks behind. But today’s markets run 24/7, and India's markets dance to their drumbeat.
Also read | Gold rush meets stock market bull run! Rare double boom squashing your portfolio plan?
While it’s true that the Indian markets don’t always follow the Western script, analysts warn that May arrives with a dose of caution. “Geopolitical uncertainties ranging from tariff-related global tensions to regional friction with Pakistan have the potential to introduce near-term volatility. On the domestic front, political developments in the run-up to the general elections, including the Karnataka state polls, are expected to keep market participants on edge,” Vikram Kasat, Head – Advisory at PL Capital, said.
Despite these headwinds, technical and derivatives data suggest that the broader trend remains constructive. The April series ended with strong short-covering across indices, which laid a firm base for a potential continuation of the uptrend into May.
“From a levels perspective, the Nifty appears to be holding well above the crucial 23,800 support zone. If this level sustains, a move toward the 24,600–25,000 range remains a strong possibility during the May series. This technical setup is being closely watched by traders and institutions alike, as fresh long additions continue to support the bullish momentum,” Kasat said.
Om Ghawalkar, Market Analyst at Share.Market, says investors should focus on fundamentals and long-term opportunities, rather than seasonal myths around the May month curse. “The influence of global market trends on India has diminished in recent years. The robust domestic economy, strong corporate earnings, and proactive policy measures have helped Indian equities withstand external shocks. Even when global events-like US tariff threats or India-Pakistan tensions, spark volatility, the Indian market has shown remarkable resilience, often recovering losses swiftly.”
While geopolitical and political developments could lead to intermittent swings, strong technical setups and derivatives positioning continue to indicate strength underneath the surface. Analysts suggest that investors with a longer-term view should see any dip, if it comes, in May more as an accumulation opportunity than a signal to exit.
With robust macro fundamentals, steady FII inflows, and institutional positioning still constructive, the broader Indian equity market remains on firm ground.
So, is “Sell in May” dead? Well, it never quite lived.
As Kasat quips, “Perhaps it’s time to revise the adage for Indian markets: Don’t sell in May—just prepare to sway.”
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
The numbers speak louder than tradition: Nifty has clocked positive returns in six of the past ten years, with an average gain of 1.5% during May. Only four times in the last decade did the benchmark index end the month in the red, and none of those falls qualify as apocalyptic.
"Sell in May and go away doesn’t work anywhere except making headlines," SAMCO Securities’ Apurva Sheth told ETMarkets. “S&P 500 has closed on a positive note in the last 9 out of the 10 years with an average gain of 0.9%. Nifty50 has closed on a positive note in 6 out of 10 years. That’s not all…the historical data of Wall Street also disproves this theory. In the last 40 years, S&P 500 has ended on a positive note on 31 occasions with an average gain of 1.24%.”
The original “Sell in May” mantra hails from London’s old trading rooms, when brokers would literally go on summer holidays and leave their desks behind. But today’s markets run 24/7, and India's markets dance to their drumbeat.
Also read | Gold rush meets stock market bull run! Rare double boom squashing your portfolio plan?
While it’s true that the Indian markets don’t always follow the Western script, analysts warn that May arrives with a dose of caution. “Geopolitical uncertainties ranging from tariff-related global tensions to regional friction with Pakistan have the potential to introduce near-term volatility. On the domestic front, political developments in the run-up to the general elections, including the Karnataka state polls, are expected to keep market participants on edge,” Vikram Kasat, Head – Advisory at PL Capital, said.
Despite these headwinds, technical and derivatives data suggest that the broader trend remains constructive. The April series ended with strong short-covering across indices, which laid a firm base for a potential continuation of the uptrend into May.
“From a levels perspective, the Nifty appears to be holding well above the crucial 23,800 support zone. If this level sustains, a move toward the 24,600–25,000 range remains a strong possibility during the May series. This technical setup is being closely watched by traders and institutions alike, as fresh long additions continue to support the bullish momentum,” Kasat said.
Om Ghawalkar, Market Analyst at Share.Market, says investors should focus on fundamentals and long-term opportunities, rather than seasonal myths around the May month curse. “The influence of global market trends on India has diminished in recent years. The robust domestic economy, strong corporate earnings, and proactive policy measures have helped Indian equities withstand external shocks. Even when global events-like US tariff threats or India-Pakistan tensions, spark volatility, the Indian market has shown remarkable resilience, often recovering losses swiftly.”
While geopolitical and political developments could lead to intermittent swings, strong technical setups and derivatives positioning continue to indicate strength underneath the surface. Analysts suggest that investors with a longer-term view should see any dip, if it comes, in May more as an accumulation opportunity than a signal to exit.
With robust macro fundamentals, steady FII inflows, and institutional positioning still constructive, the broader Indian equity market remains on firm ground.
So, is “Sell in May” dead? Well, it never quite lived.
As Kasat quips, “Perhaps it’s time to revise the adage for Indian markets: Don’t sell in May—just prepare to sway.”
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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